Study of the Thai central bank: CBAM reduced Thai exports to the EU

The Thai central bank study identified five impacts of CBAM on Thai exporters:

1) Export of CBAM products from Thailand to the EU fell by 14% compared to other Thai exports after the CBAM announcement in 2020 and by a further 24% after implementation began in 2023 — that is, even before the obligation to purchase certificates.

2) CBAM also has indirect effects on the export of non‑CBAM products, because exporters often ship various goods in bulk shipments and a decline in one category drags down the others.

3) Some Thai exporters of CBAM products redirected the export of non‑CBAM goods to non‑European markets.

4) The impacts are uneven — small firms are affected significantly more than large ones, due to limited financial resources and technical capacities.

5) Analysts at Kasikorn Research Center estimate that CBAM will affect 3.8% of Thai exports to the EU, worth approximately 28 billion baht. Only 7% of Thai exports are classified as environmentally friendly, and the share of clean energy in total consumption is just 13–14%.

Thailand is also legislatively unprepared — the climate law, necessary for introducing a carbon tax and emissions trading, ran into the dissolution of parliament, leaving the country without a legal framework to help exporters cope with CBAM.

Source: Bangkok Post - Exporters confront carbon footprints