The pace of global warming has almost doubled since 2015.
A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters (Foster & Rahmstorf, 2026) presents alarming figures: the pace of global warming has almost doubled since 2015. In the period 1970–2015, the average temperature rose at a rate of 0.2 °C per decade, but over the past ten years this rate has increased to roughly 0.35 °C per decade.
Scientists removed the influence of natural factors (El Niño, volcanic activity, solar cycles) from temperature data to isolate the purely human contribution to warming. The result shows a statistically significant acceleration of warming with confidence exceeding 98 %.
If the current pace persists, the 1.5 °C limit set by the Paris Agreement will be exceeded in the long term between 2026 and 2029.
As co‑author Stefan Rahmstorf says: the outcome depends on whether ambitious emission‑reduction actions are adopted worldwide.